Author: Richard Adamson, CMC Managing Director
Imagine the year is 2050. The world is on track to achieve a 2C long term temperature increase consistent with a 450 ppm atmospheric CO2 concentration. The Gross World Economy has tripled since 2014, averaging 3% annual growth. The population globally has grown to 9.6 billion people.
While climate change mitigation work is not done, the hard work required to stay within the global carbon budget has been aggressively tackled, AND we live in a prosperous world. There is no talk of “burden sharing” in this future.
What does Canada’s industrial infrastructure and economy look like? What are our major exports and who are our customers? What is life like for those of us who are still around?
CMC joins international team
Carbon Management Canada has joined with national teams of experts from around the world to imagine then model this future. Led by the Sustainable Development Solutions Network, a global initiative for the United Nations, and supported by the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) in France, the International Energy Agency, and the World Business Counsel for Sustainable Development, fifteen countries and over 34 organizations worldwide are working to develop such scenarios from the bottom up, nation by nation.
One exciting aspect of this project is the full transparency into each national team’s assumptions. If certain countries are looking for massive transformation toward nuclear power, what does that mean for Canada’s uranium industry? If others are shifting to biofuels but are concerned about fertilizers, how does that impact Saskatchewan’s potash industry? Is it possible to develop low carbon nitrogen fertilizer production using western natural gas and Carbon Capture and Storage? Massive global investment in offshore wind, expansion of transmission systems and other industrial infrastructure turnover requires iron. Electrification of transportation systems will demand high density, efficient motors, driving up demand for rare earth metals such as those proposed to be mined at the “Ring of Fire” development in Northern Ontario.
Searching for the path forward
But all is not rosy. The extraction and primary processing industries presently are heavily dependent on fossil fuels and are emissions intensive. With a global price or shadow price on carbon likely to be substantial, low carbon intensity will be a necessary condition to compete on this new world market. How will Canada get from here to there?
CMC is working with Sustainable Prosperity, Navius Research and others to build on the foundational work that was done by the National Round Table for Energy and the Environment (NRTEE) and others to find a Canadian pathway to a prosperous, low carbon future.
Results shared at COP 21
The results will be shared at the World Leaders Climate Summit at the UN in September 2014, and in the Phase 2 report at COP21 in Paris, December 2015.
DDPP Participating Countries include:
Australia; Brazil; Canada; China; France; Germany; India; Indonesia; Japan; Mexico; Russia; South Africa; South Korea; UK; and USA.
CMC Seeks Funding for DDPP:
Carbon Management Canada is actively seeking funding from industry and government sources alike to support this important project. If you are interested in receiving a more detailed briefing or discussing this further, contact:
Richard Adamson at Richard.Adamson@cmcghg.com